Golf and Capitalism

I love golf and I love capitalism. 

HT: Tyler Cowen

NBA Playoffs Update

It's been a wild first couple of days in the NBA playoffs. After watching a few games, here's where I stand:

WESTERN CONFERENCE

I still think the Lakers will sweep the Jazz. I still think the Hornets will beat the Nuggets. I still think the Rockets will beat the Blazers. I still think the Spurs will beat the Mavs.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

I still think the Cavs will sweep the Pistons. I still think the Celts will beat the Bulls. I still think the Magic will struggle to beat the 6er's in 7. I still think the Heat will beat the Hawks.

Thank you for your concern, but as you can see, I still think I am perfectly prescient in my plausible predictions.

SIDENOTE: If you are not doing Streak for the Cash on ESPN, you should be. If you are doing the Streak, you probably picked the Lakers to win last night. If you had a Streak of 5+ going in to that game, I laugh at you. Especially if I told you to pick the Jazz before the tipoff.

NOTES on the NFL Draft: I've forsaken most offseason activities for all sports b/c I find myself too busy with "in-season" sports to worry about "off-season" sports. That being said, I know you are clamoring for my take on the upcoming NFL draft. I'm going to take a few minutes to address the needs of some of the more interesting teams.

Let's start with the Seahawks: After an abysmal season last year, the Hawks get the benefit of a high draft pick. I have a big problem with drafting skill players at the top of the draft. It usually engenders the player with a sense of entitlement despite accomplishing little more than having their named called on national TV while looking dorky holding up a jersey next to the Comish. There seems to be twice as many highly touted busts as big stars. Likewise, it seems as if many of the best players in the league today were picked in the later rounds. Look at last years two Superbowl QBs. Roethlisberger was the 11 pick in the draft (1st round, but not top 10) and Warner has a story familiar to us all (grocery boy turned QB). It will be tempting for the Hawks to grab Mark Sanchez if he's still on the board (which he will be unless a team trades up). Sanchez can come in, sit behing Baldback for a few years then step in to the starting job. How's that working out for another USC grad Leinart in 'Zona? Sanchez might be a great QB, but I'd rather get an experienced QB through free-agency or a trade (in a few years in Seattle's case). I don't care who they pick, but they should get one of the many OTs talked about and have a great QB protector for years to come. Either way, the Hawks will be fighting for a wildcard pick while going against the 49ers in division.

The 49ers: After 2 or 3 disappointing seasons as the 'hot pick' that stayed cold, the 9ers are primed to follow up their solid finish under new coach Mike Singletary atop the NFC West and are quite likely to have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. It's almost unfair that they also get the #10 pick in the draft. I expect the team to come out of the gates slowly, 3-3, but by then Goodell will have reinstated Mr. Michael Vick.  Vick will sign with a fatherly figure like Singletary and Vick will make a stupid mistake in his first game. The Niners will lose that game, Vick will be put in Singletary's doghouse; but after that, the 9ers will finish 9-0 (12-4 overall) with Vick throwing bones to Crabtree (the 9ers pick this year). You heard it here first.

The Cowboys: I know the Boys don't have a first round pick, but they don't need one. After being liberated by letting go of Owens and moving into their new awesome stadium, the Cowboys are gearing up for a really exciting season. Last year was a disappointment, but Jerry Jones has made sure the ship is sailing straight this offseason and there are high hopes in Dallas. That's too bad. After the Mavs impending collapse to the Ginolbi-less Spurs, the Cowboys season will be an even bigger letdown. Despite being led by the wickedly smart Jason Garrett on offense, the Boys will give up an average of 29.2 points per game this year. The new stadium is nice, but just like my mother lied to me as a child, "It's the inside that counts." Well, in this case, the inside is a giant piece of poop that will rot for 17 weeks from August to 2010.

Have a great weekend!

Lure your audience with a catchy first line!!

I think the NY Times is doing it wrong:

 Jeremy Tyler, a 6-foot-11 high school junior whom some consider the best American big man since Greg Oden, says he will be taking a new path to the N.B.A. He has left San Diego High School and said this week that he would skip his senior year to play professionally in Europe.

You mean this Greg Oden? 

Season				MPG	FG%		FT%	PPG		RPG	APG		BPG	TO	PF	PPG
08-09				21.5	0.564		0.637	8.9		7.0	0.5		1.1	1.43	3.90	8.9
Career				21.5	0.564		0.637	8.9		7.0	0.5		1.1	1.43	3.90	8.9

I know Greg is just a quasi-rookie, but you're trying to promote your article by saying this kid is the next best thing since Greg Oden? 21 minutes a game? 8 points and 7 rebounds for a big man? I like Greg Oden and hope his career takes off, but from what we've seen so far, I sure how this Tyler kid projects better than what we've had from Oden up until now.

NY Times should stick to the arts.

Breaking down the NBA Playoffs

I love the NBA playoffs. 40 games in 40 nights on TNT is awesome. Every year there is some series that surprises everyone (think Hawks/Celtics last year). Some team inevitably gets hot and seemingly can't lose (Lakers rolling through the epic WC of last year). Every round has a matchup that is so even they could play best of 77 and it would be won 39-38 (Houston/Utah last year). There's the older team knowing that this year is likely their last with the current nucleus (Detroit last year). It's great and this year will surely feature the same awesomeness. I'm giddy (even though KG going down has momentarily faded that giddiness). Let's break each matchup and then I'll throw out some preposterous predictions:

EASTERN CONFERENCE:

(1) Cavs vs (8) Pistons

What was one of the marquee matchups the last few years in the Eastern Conference has been demoted to what should be a first round laugher. The Pistons were going to struggle some this year and it would've been a surprise for them to challenge for the EC, but I didn't expect them to be 8 seed material. Who knew that Chauncey was that valuable to the team, and who knew Iverson was going to struggle THIS much with the Pistons. Lebron gives everyone trouble, but he has been the bane of the Pistons' playoff existence the last few years.

Lebron is on a mission, this team has playoff experience. Cavs in 4.

(2) Boston vs (7) Chicago

I'm not even going to mention KG during this breakdown. KG was really overrated for this team and they won't miss KG at all. KG didn't bring anything to the table for the Celts and they won't miss KG at all. Ok, I failed. But Chicago is young; they were a promising team a few years ago, the up-and-coming team of the EC, but that went down in epic flames. Seriously, Deng, Wallace, Williams, Heinrich, Gordon. They were supposed to be good. That was a few years ago, and while D. Rose has been great this year, I think people have written the Celts off, but they won't let that happen. I actually see the Celts having an easy time with the Bulls.

KG's injury sucks, but I think the Celts have a surprise in them. Celts in 6.

(3) Orlando vs (6) Philly

Orlando is going to struggle. They've been playing terribly of late and I think they are assumed to be the only challengers left to the Cavs, and I don't like that combination. I can see them subconciously getting ahead of themselves and worrying too much about how they are going to handle the Cavs while overlooking their first two rounds. Well, after they lose Game 1, they'll be in for a struggle. That's right, I'm calling this series as the surprise battle that nobody saw coming. The point of this playoffs breakdown is not to be accurate but to make outlandish predictions. Responsible journalism gets thrown out the door when talking about sports (unlike my completely professional job while covering all other subjects). Philly is not a good team, but I want them to be good for a few games. Orlando seriously outmatches the 6'ers and I can barely even remember the name of the 6'ers coach, but I gots a feeling about this one.

Orlando in a 7 game battle.

(4) Atlanta vs (5) Dwyane Wade

Atlanta shot outta the gates this season, settled into the 4 slot and just kind consistently rode that wave to the seasons end. Miami's 2-12 players are nothing amazing (yet) but I like Spoelstra walking the sidelines and Wade doing insane '06 theatrics. I have a feeling this will be a popular upset pick (which bothers me), b/c I think the Hawks are really good. If I was being responsible, I'd pick them to win this series and then give the Cavs one hell of a battle. But I'm an idiot and I want to see Wade and Lebron battle in round 2. So, selfishly, I'm picking the Heat. I just want you to be warned, I'm probably wrong. The Hawks are a fun team to like when they are the 7 or 8 seed. There is something unlikable about them in Round 1 as the 4 seed. They become likable again if they play the Cavs in Round 2. Write that down.

Wade in 6

More worthless predictions: Cavs and Celts advancing to ECF. Shockingly, I have the Cavs going to the finals.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Lakers vs (8) Utah

I think Carlos Boozer hates his life. As a Duke fan, I really liked him in college. As a person, I really found him despicable for screwing the Cavs like he did 3/4 years back. I can never really be a fan of his after that sleaze move he pulled. He had a verbal agreement with the Cavs, they left him not under contract for like an hour, and he jumped ship. Yeah, it's tough to pass up a few million and the opportunity to be the Alpha-Dog; and the Cavs GM was an idiot for even letting that situation be possible, but still, it left a bad taste in my mouth. I'm going to hold that against him until he saves the life of some kid or something. Also, as much as Chris Paul is admired and as awesome as his game is, I can't let go of the fact that he punched Julius Hodges in the balls during the ACC tournament a few years ago. That's just low; that's something a soccer player would do. You play the game, and you get every legal advantage you can get. You do not punch a guy in the balls. Let me repeat that: YOU DO NOT PUNCH A GUY IN THE BALLS. I hold those two events against those two players.

I digress. The Lakers are good. And if they can find a way to work around Bynum; they will be great. They can go big; they can go small; they can go deep; they can go Kobe. The have Phil doing crazy Asian stuff on the bench. They've got Mental Jack courtside hollering at officials. They can't be beat. This whole Kobe/Lebron factor reminds me of Obi-Won Kenobi and Darth Vader in Star Wars IV: A New Hope when Obi-Won and Darth are about to do battle:

Darth Vader: He is here.
Governor Tarkin: Obi-Wan Kenobi? What makes you think so?
Darth Vader: A tremor in the Force. The last time I felt it was in the presence of my old master.
Governor Tarkin: Surely he must be dead by now.
Darth Vader: Don't underestimate the Force.
Governor Tarkin: The Jedi are extinct, their fire has gone out of the universe. You, my friend, are all that's left of their religion.
[answering a comm signal]
Governor Tarkin: Yes?
Voice over comm: We have an emergency alert in detention block AA-23.
Governor Tarkin: The Princess? Put all sections on alert.
Darth Vader: Obi-wan *is* here. The Force is with him.
Governor Tarkin: If you're right, he must not be allowed to escape.
Darth Vader: Escape is not his plan. I must face him, alone.

The 'I must face him alone' part is exactly what is going on between Kobe and Lebron right now; I'm just not sure who is Darth Vader and who is Obi-Won (ignore the fact that Kobe raped a girl. Ok cheap joke, Kobe if you're reading this blog, I was joking). I see them both just blitzing through their conferences. More on Obi-Won/Vader later...

Lakers in 4

(2) Denver vs (7) New Orleans

I was talking to my amigo yesterday and asked him the question, "Is Denver secretly good? Is there something I'm missing here?" The WC has been awesome the last few years. They've come back to earth a little this year, but I am flabbergasted at the fact that Denver is the number 2 seed. Chauncey obviously has done a lot for them as far as leadership goes, so I struggle to write them off, b/c he's got huge playoff testicles (not nearly as big as Sam Cassell's though). But I could swear that NO is way better than Denver. NO was great last year. They were the number 2 seed and took the Spurs to 7 games and looked like they were going to be a dominant force this year. 5 games separated the two teams this year; which is negligible. The teams split the season series. I think the 2 seed through 7 seeds are pretty much equal and any three teams could advance to round two.

I don't think Denver can get out of Round 1. I'd like to see them never get out of the first round for some reason. Hornets in 7 winning a road game for the series.

(4) Portland vs. (5) Houston

Another great matchup. Of course the 4/5's usually are, but Portland has been the semi-surprise/non-suprise of the year. It was surprising to see them in the top 9 of the WC for the first 1/3 of the season, but when you thought about it and accepted the fact that they have a great nucleus, it ceased to be a surprise and now they seem like a mainstay. Houston had the T-Mac debacle turn out to be a blessing in disguise. They've been better without him. I also think we forget how good Ron Artest really is. He's a GREAT on the ball defender, gets it done offensively and is a totally repressed nutjob. This works in his favor. Have you seen "I Love you Man"? Ron Artest reminds me of Jason Segel's character when a stranger confronts him about not picking up after his dogshit. Jason Segel responds by just walking up to the stranger in a confrontational manner and making really loud/crazy noices in the strangers face. I feel like RonRon could do that at any minute and that scares his opponents; except he's not going to do that because he's found his 'Happy Place' (sorry, two movies references in one sentence). I also like the prospect of Houston never making it out of the first round with this team, but now that T-Mac is on the sidelines, I think it would be great for them to make a playoff run with him being a non-factor. It would belittle T-Mac for handling his injury this year like a D-Bag.

Houston in an exciting 6.

Ok, finally:

(3) The Spurs vs. (6) The Mavs

This battle usually takes place later in the playoffs, but with the Mavs struggling to find their groove until the last two weeks of the season, it's a first round Texas Two Step instead of a WCF Two-step. No big deal. Going to college in San Antonio, I know first hand how much these two teams hate each other (or at least the fan bases). The Mavs are the hottest team in the league right now, and the Spurs are coming off news of Ginobli being done for the year and Timmy D's health less than stellar. Tony Parker has shown me that there are admirable Frenchy's out there and Greg Pop will come up with a great gameplan. Throw in Mason and Finley hitting shots and they will be a tough game for anybody. The Mavs though are playing great basketball. As soon as they realized they would be the 8 seed at least, it loosened up their playing style and they've been able to beat some really good teams down the stretch. The teams split the season series and this is that one series where the teams could play a billion times and it would split 50/50 (ingoring the fact that the Spurs would fade because of a lack of depth/age). My favorite part about the Mavs this year is that it will convince Mark Cuban that maybe this nucleus could actually still win a championship, so instead of blowing the team up (like he should have done after '06's fail) he might try and add pieces again and watch them putter to 6/7/8 seeds for another two years. Then Dirk will be done and the Mavs will have to retool from scratch. I think the Spurs will win because I have little faith in Rick Carlisle. It's gonna be great though.

Spurs in 7

Ludicrous predictions: Lakers and SPURS going to WCF. Spurs will be the surprise team going that far. I think the Lakers will lose 1 game in the WC. It's going to be memorable.

I hate picking the Cavs and Lakers to go to the finals, b/c that's what everybody is picking. But I'm not going to pick against the grain just to do it. That's stupid. The Lakers and Cavs are simply the cream of the crop in their respective conferences. Obi-Won and Vader. I think Lebron is going to do ridiculous things throughout the playoffs and leave his stamp on the game. In fact, he's been doing that all season. His team is quite mediocre relative to their record and 9ppg advantage over opponents (100ppg scored vs. 91ppg against). The Cavs are unstopable. So I'm picking the Lakers. I love Kobe, but he is the perfect Vader. And that's the thing, Vader beats Obi-Won in their Death Star battle. But Lebron is going to leave his stamp on the game, just like Old Ben Kenobi. Lebron is going to influence this story for years to come and go down in history as a better player than Kobe. But Kobe gets this one to cement his status.

Lakers win the championship in 7 as the Cavs can't protect the home-court they famously defended all year. Remember, it was the Lakers that were the only team to beat the Cavs on their home court this year (excluding the meaningless last game of the year vs. the 76ers). Watch this championship go down as one of the top-5 finishes to an NBA season.

Masters Leaderboard!

Follow along with the Masters @ your favorite blog: FEV

Final Week of the NBA Season: What matters?

The NBA postseason is fast approaching and the 08/09 run has a different feel to it than years past. No longer is the East to be laughed at like the sad, wasted blonde throwing up on her new shoes and crying outside the bar at 3 in the morning. The West's top 9 teams are still superior, but for the first time in almost ten years, the first two rounds of the East playoffs will be worth watching. Last year was an improvement, with the Hawks garnering some attention by surprising the Celts and taking them to 7; and Lebron letting us peek at his capabilities. But everyone knew the Celts were coming out of the East, and would be playing a Western team that had survived the most brutal Conference tournament in my lifetime (no hyperbole; last year's Western regular season was absolutely amazing and brought back fans that had left the NBA since the post-Jordan era).

With the season winding down next Wednesday, let's take a look at what's at stake for certain team in their remaining games. We'll start with the East:

First of all, the race for the 8th spot is not over yet. Chicago, Detroit, and Charlotte all have 4 games remaining, fighting for 2 spots, with Chicago and Detroit sharing a 3 game cushion. However, Chicago needs to play Philly, Charlotte and @Detroit.  I personally would love to see the Bobcats make the playoffs, a) b/c I like Larry Brown and b) the Bobcats? seriously?!? They've secretly turned into one of the pleasant surprises of this season (along with OK City, Portland, and Ms. Marko Jaric). Alas, it won't really matter who lands the 8 spot, b/c they'll be going up against the King in the 1st round. So, let's focus on the top seeds:

Cleveland: The Cavs have the East's top spot all but wrapped up, but more importantly they hold a one game edge over the Lakers for the best record in the league. With their 38-1 record at home this year; it would be nice to be hosting any potential Game 7s in the finals. Look for them to win their next three games (including a statement game at home against Boston) before winding things down vs. the 6ers.

Boston/Orlando: It's funny, last year all the talkingheads were saying that Boston is 'one year away from being champions/they need one more year to gel'. Well that year is here. Granted, they won last year and it's supposedly always more difficult to repeat (even though my intramural team had no trouble doing so in college, booyah), but the Celts have hardly looked like the team destined to repeat. After starting 27-2, they've gone 32-17. They've been battling injuries, sure, but so has almost every other major team this year. The Magic have surprised everyone by being this good, especially when you factor in the Jameer Nelson injury (they lost their point guard in the middle of the season!!). With the teams splitting the season series, that home court advantage would prove extra important. Boston struggled mightily on the road last playoffs, and the Magic are still a young team, that would greatly benefit from being at home. Boston has the one game lead, but they also face the tougher schedule and have a greater need to rest older bodies.

Atlanta/Miami: I'll break down matchups in next Friday's NBA column, but it looks safe to say that Atlanta will be hosting this 4/5 battle. While Philly is only half a game back from Miami, they still need to play Cleveland twice and Boston once.

Eastern wrap up: The 7/8/9 teams will be battling for two spots this week with Charlotte the long-shot, but definitely still alive. The Cavs, Celts, and Magic will be playing all out all the way through the season in hopes of securing home court advantage in either the 2nd round or finals. And the 4/5/6 teams can't really do much to control their playoff matchups. So that concludes our Eastern conference picture. Let's go to a commercial break.

(Racial Commentary: White guys often lament about the fact that they can't dress as cool as black guys, or at least that they can't pull off the same kind of style that most black guys can pull off. But I've got to say that typical white-dude clothing passes through time a lot more easily. Larry probably wears the same clothes today that he did in that McD's ad, but I doubt Jordan is still wearing that technicolor carwreck when he hits the gym at Caesar's in LV)

Western Conference:

Lakers: The Lakers are one game back of the Cavs for the best record in the league and guaranteed homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. The Lakers have the added benefit knowing that if they fall two games back of the Cavs, they can just coast through their final couple games and rest up for round one. Obviously, Coach Jackson will be looking to get Bynum some reps with the A-team, but unless the Cavs give up a game, the Black Mamba can look forward to a restful last week.

Nuggets: I am very surprised to see them here this late in the season. They were the whipping boy of the West's round 1 for the last few years and I didn't see that changing any time soon. Chauncey's leadership and not-as-washed-upness have apparently catapulted this team into legitimacy. But even though they are playing great basketball right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see them as underdogs in the first round. They've owned Dallas this year, going 4-0, but they split against the Jazz and it's possible they could wind up playing CP3 (against whom they went 1-3!). I'd be shocked to see them come out of the West, but at the rate they are playing, they seem like a solid #2 seed.

San Antonio/Houston/Portland/New Orleans: One of these teams could sneak into a #2 seed, or fall into a #7, but it looks as if these four will be playing each other in some combination in round one. Obviously the Spurs are dealing with the Ginobli news still, but this is the most experienced team in the league and I don't think they are afraid about playing on the road through the playoffs. I'd look for them to get solid first half reps, but ultimately rest up and keep the cards close to their chest. Houston needs home court in the first round. They are 32-8 at home versus 18-20 on the road and they aren't known for their playoff prowess anyways. This team has reminded me of a JV Spurs the last few years. Well rounded, fundamental basketball; Adelman is an ok coach, and if they can get out of the first round and over that mental barrier, I could see this team building momentum. Portland is young, VERY young, and their home/away record is similar to the Rockets. Look for the Blazers to treat every game from here on out like a playoff game in an effort to secure home court. With CP3 at the point, the Hornets can win in any situation, so look for them to rest up.

***UPDATE***

Jazz/Mavs: Don't forget that whatever team ends up in the 7 spot, will be able to make a little bit of a run. After watching the Jazz last year, it's not wise to just write them off. After watching the Mavs this year, it's wise to just write them off. Technically they are still alive for the 6 seed, but CP3 and the Hornets should take care of this team that choked away its chance at a championship a few years ago and have reeled and disappointed since.

***END UPDATE***

Let's review the West: Portland and Houston are playing hard for position, and the Lakers will keep an eye on the prospect of home court, but with all the playoffs spots secured and an evenly matched conference, don't look for too much craziness in the final West week. One more commercial before final thoughts:

(Physics Commentary: Did Magic really made that shot with the quarter? Are you positive? And more importantly: Holy crap, soda machines used to cost only a quarter. I would drink a billion sodas a day if they were that cheap. And once the Fed starts printing the gagillions needed to service our almost sure to default debt, Magic will need to find a way to shoot a $10 bill into a machine to impress some kids on the Venice boardwalk. And even more importantly: what the heck ever happened to Slice? Even though my mom never let me drink it, I loved that orange deliciousness.)

Ok, so today's NBA column was a little dry. Hypothetically looking at an uneventful last week will tend to do that, but next week I'll be back with some awards for the 08/09 season that are hopefully modestly original and also match up breakdowns of the first round games. I'll also share thoughts on Vegas bets that will be on the boards.

Enjoy following the Masters. I'll be live blogging some of it.