Thursday, April 16, 2009

Regulatory Link of the Day

If this opening paragraph doesn't get your attention, then I don't know what will:
In my mind’s eye, I envision a street fair—one of those happy community gatherings at which sellers of handcrafted ceramics, funky clothing, herbal remedies, fresh vegetables, and edible delicacies congregate to display their wares for the strolling customers, who chat amiably with the stall-keepers and with one another. Suddenly, amid horrified shrieks and the roar of a giant engine, a truck plows through this placid setting, scattering twisted debris and broken bodies in its wake. Finally, after wreaking a hundred-yard swath of death and devastation, the truck stops, and the driver, Ben Bernanke, climbs down from the cab.
That's Robert Higgs, author of Crisis and Leviathan. It's a recommended link for my series on Regulation.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

What Is Seen and What is Not Seen

Famous French Economist Frederic Bastiat wrote an enchanting paper entitled, "What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen" in 1848. My first exposure to economics literature was (fortunately) from Henry Hazlitt and his "Economics in One Lesson", published in 1979. The premise behind each piece is quite simple. I'll focus on Hazlitt. His one lesson is this: 
The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.
His example is that of a glassman. Suppose you are walking along the street one day and come across a tailor's store with the storefront's large pane of glass broken. Surely, you would soon see a glassman pull up in his truck, sweep up the broken glass, measure the window space, go to the back of his truck, pull out a new sheet of glass, and spend the rest of the afternoon installing the new storefront. The tailor, who owns the shop, will pull out his wallet and hand the glassman $100 for his troubles. "Wow! That's great," you say. The glassman has $100 new dollars to take home to his wife and family. That wife will take some of the money to the grocery store and purchase food and some of the money to the jeweler to buy a necklace. The grocer and jeweler will then in turn take their newly earned money and cylce it further and further into the economy. This observation inspires you. That night you decide to go around town breaking all the glass storefronts in town; generating a plethora of new business for our glassman, who will then give the money to his wife and in turn to the grocer and jeweler. You are, in essence, stimulating the economy. And the faster the wife passes the money to the grocer and the jeweler, the faster is the velocity of your new stimulus.

Hazlitt (and Bastiat) goes on to point out that you would be mistaken in this analysis. What is 'Not Seen' is the baker. Had the tailor been able to save his money, instead of paying the glassman, he would have bought his daughter a celebratory cake for her graduation. It is easy to 'See' the money pass hands from glassman, to wife, to grocer, to jeweler; but it is much more difficult to 'See' the baker, sitting idly in his shop with no demand for cakes, cookies, and sweets.

So what's the point of this lesson I am passing on? This. "Pipe Made in India Incenses Illionois Town". I just finished reading this article in the New York times, and it is a great learning tool. Besides its forced alliteration, the article goes on to lament about the fact that a union worker recently 'SAW' a train passing by with Indian steel piping aboard. The article continues to focus on the 'Seen' aspects. The town that is no-longer its once bustling economic center; the jobs that would be created if a congressional clause stipulated that piping be made domestically; the unfair 'dumping' being done by Indian and Chinese producers. All of this is easily 'seen'. What is not seen is the small business owner paying less taxes for cheaper steel; the local public school teacher getting a raise because her government saved money on steel and could afford to give her another $1,500/year; the janitor paying less for gas because the oil company used cheaper steel to bring in the Canadian oil. I feel badly for the small town and especially the man with 6 unemployed kids. But requiring the rest of the region to pay more for American, when a less expensive Indian alternative is readily available, is selfish. Using legislation to force a janitor to pay more for gas to support your kids would justifiably frustrated the janitor. Only the janitor would never 'See' this hidden cost.

There's yet another economics lesson to be learned within the article. Near the end, it talks about how the United Steelworkers union is teaming up with the Sierra Club to fight this problem. This lesson is about Bootleggers and Baptists. Here is an explanation of B&B:
Both groups want to ban Sunday liquor sales. One out of concern for others. One out of self-interest. Politicians who support such a ban always invoke the altruistic motive. The altruists give cover to the self-interested advocates for a particular policy.

The altruists often inspire the general public to encourage politicians to "do something." But they lose interest in the details of the legislation. The bootleggers, the self-interested folk, spend a lot of time on those details making sure that the legislation is structured to line their pockets.
The 'altruists' in the NY Times article are the Sierra Club. They'll push for pipes that meet a more stringent standard in order to 'protect the environment'. But when the legislation gets written, I'd imagine the United Steelworkers will have their hand on the pen.

Presidential Pets

Unlike Jack Byrnes, I'm not a cat kind of guy. I know that may alienate some of my readership, but dogs are way better. If BHO would have gotten a First Cat before a First Dog, I'd move back to China (sarcastic laughter). But that got me thinking, if Presidents were judged not on policy but on pets, who would go down as the Best #1 in our history?

Worst Prez: Likely Andrew Johnson. While a handful of presidents had zero pets, Johnson had only white mice. I think that's kind of weird.

Honorable Mention for Best Prez: John Quincy Adams (Alligator); Van Buren (tiger cubs); Buchanan (an eagle)

Coolest Prez #3: Jefferson. Washington had a bunch of hounds, a parrot and a horse. Adams had only horses. But Jefferson was the first Prez to say, "F it. I'm the President of the coolest new nation in the world, and I'm gonna get me an animal that represents our awesomeness." So he got a mockingbird, and then Lewis and Clark gave him two bear cubs. Bear cubs!! I wonder if Sally Hemings was responsible for feeding them? Jefferson definitely gets some extra points for starting the trend.

Coolest Prez #2: Silent Cal. This guy gets knocked all the time for being a crappy President (and undeservedly so, I might add). He was one of the most libertarian presidents in our history. After him, Hoover and Roosevelt oversaw the most liberal expansion in the federal government; a trend that has continued throughout the 20th century. If you want to read a good book about this expansion, check out "Crisis and Leviathan" by Robert Higgs. Anyways, Mr. Cool Cal had an awesome army of pets: A bunch of dogs (Terriers, Airedale, Sheepdog, Bulldog, Shepard, Birder, Collies, Chows), birds, cats, and now the good stuff: Raccoons named Rebecca and Horace; a donkey named Ebeneezer; a bobcat named Smokey; a bear; an antelope; a wallaby; a pygmy hippo!!; and some lion cubs. 

Coolest Prez #1: What? You thought Silent Cal couldn't be topped? Me neither, but check out this cowboy: Teddy Roosevelt. I could almost change my opinion of his cousin's presidency because of how eclectic this collection is. The usual dogs and cats; a pony; a macaw; a BADGER named Josiah, a PIEBALD RAT (which upon further research, is actually just a dog, but still sounds cool); a garter snake named Emily Spinach (was this dude smoking weed?); FIVE BEARS; FIVE GUINEA PIGS (presumably not allowed to play with the bears); more snakes; two kangaroo rats; lizards; roosters; an owl; a FLYING SQUIRREL (compensation for a lack of Air-Force One?); a Raccoon; a coyote; a Lion; a Hyena; and Zebra. Take that Mike Tyson

Check out the whole list

Best opening paragraphs to an article I read today...

Jamie Whyte. London Times. I'm going to share the opening: 

Those who favour “stimulating” the economy often employ a medical metaphor. The economy is a dying patient. Questions about the long-term effects of its treatment are irrelevant. All that matters now is keeping it alive.

They are foolish to employ this metaphor. Economies cannot die. Even during the Great Depression of the 1930s the economy lived on. The gross domestic product of most industrial countries dropped by about 30 per cent. I am not sure how to translate that into the medical metaphor. Moving 30 per cent less? Losing 30 per cent of your body weight? Whatever: it is not the same as dying.

So long as humans survive, we will have an economy. People will produce and consume food, shelter, clothes, entertainment and, with a little luck, much more besides.

This means that stimulators draw exactly the wrong conclusion from the sick patient metaphor. We should be relatively unconcerned about the economy’s immediate future. We know it will survive. What matters is its long-term quality of life. Crippling a patient who would otherwise die may be worth it. But crippling an immortal patient who would otherwise have to endure a brief period of intense pain is not.

Clever reasoning indeed.

Yeah, It's Tax Day

Whether or not you're going to a tea party today (I am not, but I like the idea), taxes are due today. I just finished reading a bevy of tax-related articles and the more I read, the angrier I became. Articles penned by people of all sorts of different political bases continued to stoke the fire burning inside.

1) Federal taxation makes me sick. Why the heck is it so high? Part of this logic is based upon one's ideal government structure. Those of us that believe a top-down mentality is best and that Wizards of Oz can pull levers and push buttons to manipulate society into achieving the most ideal society yearn for taxation to be centralized. Think of it as government's form of economies of scale. Funnel all the money into the central entity, and that central entity is best able to delegate where and to whom that money goes. Put the smartest people together and they can make magic happen. On the other hand, those of us that believe a ground-up mentality is best and that some sort of Hayekian spontaneity is the best path yearn for taxation to be decentralized. Think of this path as one that promotes experimentation among different communities. Some communities might fall behind at first; some communities may thrive at first. But innovated government is made possible and it opens up the feedback loops desperately lagging in big government.

I'm in favor of the latter, the Hayekian spontaneity. I'd much prefer to see local taxation at 35% and federal taxation at 7%, meaning local communities and governments can control delegation of spending. Not only does dispersal of tax money let locals have more say in the appropriate allocation of said money, but it weakens the leviathan located in DC. In fact, this was one of the main intentions of the Framers of this great nation. Jefferson was well aware that a  large government monopoly poses a direct threat to individual liberty:
"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yeild, and government to gain ground."
The intrigue presented by pooling our money in a central location is understandable at first glance. But allowing that much monetary power to be placed in so few hands is dangerous. In the best case scenario, those in power are benevolent angels that truly have the public's interest at heart. But even then, if those angels make a mistake, it's an expensive mistake. No small group of technocrats can effectively dole out billions and trillions of funds as planned. The human brain is incapable of accomplishing this mighty task. But what if at the foci of government, instead of angels, we have humans, prone to the whims and desires and manipulation of others. Favors? Corruption? Where would it end?

These individual tea-parties taking place around the country will no doubt draw some attention from federal legislators. Republicans will surely use these tea parties as an tool to promote an agenda they failingly adhered to for the last ten years. Democrats will use them as a impetus for investing in long-term investments like health-care technology or something similarly silly. But thousands of people acting in collaboration around the US will likely have little direct impact on the federal government. If, however, power was localized, these tea parties would have much more impact on the spending patterns of government. And herein lies the catch, the Federal government has been set up to insulate itself from nation-wide criticism. Local politicians are held accountable for their actions much more so than those elected to go to Washington. The people of Connecticut may be fed up with Chris Dodd's nincompoopery, but the fact that he is such a prominent Senator with legitimate power, means that by voting him out, the people of Connecticut will lose a powerful voice in the Senate.

I can be convinced into pooling money for military spending, but education? farm subsidies? healthcare? creating green jobs? Let those decisions be made by the communities of America. If you don't like your community, it's a lot easier to move states than it is to move countries. It's a lot easier to disown New York than it is to disown the United States. In general, I think people are proud of their home states. I know New Mexicans are surprisingly stout defenders of the Land of Enchantment. But I think (for the most part) people are tremendously more proud to be from America than any one particular state. We can all live under the umbrella of legal statutes and awesomeness that is America, but let's give the states more power to spend their constituents money.

2) Ok, that first part turned out way longer than I anticipated. Let's chalk that one up to just how feverish the articles made me. I also want to talk about BHO's charity tax. Before hearing the details of the adjustment, I was a little worries. But then I listened to him address the issue at the inaugural White House Press Conference and I became a fan of the logic behind the change. Right now, the top brackets of income earners wishing to make a contribution to charity are able to deduct 35% of the donation from their taxes. Lower brackets are able to deduct only 28%. Quoting the Washington Post:
Obama said the change would help equalize the tax break for those donating to charity. "When I give $100, I'd get the same amount of deduction as when some -- a bus driver who's making $50,000 a year, or $40,000 a year -- give that same $100," he said, adding that the provision would affect about 1 percent of Americans.
The part that frustrates me is that Obama proposes lowering the tax break for that highest bracket. I know Obama is making this adjustment to increase federal revenues, but if you really want to make things more "fair" or "equalized" by changing this discrepancy, then why not give a bigger tax break to the other 99%? Move the tax deduction for all Americans to 35%. Now that's change I can believe in.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Masters Leaderboard!

Follow along with the Masters @ your favorite blog: FEV

Keeping an Open Mind

It can be easy to be set in your ways. Pick a topic to write about, pick your stance on the issue, and then pick data to back your stance. That's the easy way to write. This article about Raghuram Rajan shows off his discipline:
He [Rajan] says he had planned to write about how financial developments during Mr. Greenspan's 18-year tenure made the world safer. But the more he looked, the less he believed that. In the end, with Mr. Greenspan watching from the audience, he argued that disaster might loom.
Easier said than done.